Earnings season for ES and NQ traders: how big tech's results move the index, and when

Why one company's results can move a whole index

The Nasdaq-100 is a concentrated index. Its ten largest companies make up about half of it, so when one of them reports, the result is not just news about that company. It is news about a large slice of NQ.

The arithmetic is simple. A company worth 8% of the index that moves 10% on its results moves the index about 0.8% on its own. With NQ near 30,000, that is roughly 240 points, almost two thirds of the 375 points NQ covered on an average day at the end of September 2026. One report can be worth most of a normal session's range, and it usually arrives when the cash market is closed.

ES feels the same reports too, diluted across a broader and less concentrated index. NQ is where they land hardest, because the Nasdaq-100 is weighted so heavily towards the companies that report the biggest numbers.

When results land, and what the futures are doing

Companies report at one of two times: before the open or just after the close. The largest tech companies almost always choose the close, which puts the first reaction outside regular trading hours, when index futures are one of the few places it can show up.

Two details catch people out. The daily pause from 5:00 to 6:00 PM ET means index futures can be closed for part of a call that moves the stock, so they reopen at 6:00 PM with ground to make up. And a result that looks good at 4:10 PM can look very different by the end of the call, because the market often cares more about guidance than about the quarter just finished. Our market hours clock shows the futures pause and the evening session in your time zone.

How a season runs

Each season starts about two weeks after a quarter ends, when the big US banks report, and runs for roughly six weeks. Most of the large companies report over the following month, with the biggest tech names often clustered in a single week. A few report later because their financial years run on a different calendar, Nvidia among them.

The busiest weeks do two things to the index. They raise the number of nights when a single company can move NQ, and individual stocks tend to move more independently of each other. A big beat in one name and a miss in another can cancel out at the index level, so a heavy reporting week does not always mean a big week for NQ.

How to trade an earnings season

• Check the earnings calendar like the economic one. Before each session, know which of the index's largest companies report tonight and which reported last night. A report from one of the biggest companies is as much a scheduled event for NQ as a jobs report.
• Decide before 4:00 PM ET whether to hold through it. Most day traders don't hold index futures through a big report after the close. The reaction arrives in thinner trading, can be extended by the call, and part of it can happen while the futures are paused. If you do hold, size for a gap rather than a normal session, which our position size calculator can help with.
• On the morning after, ask whether the gap holds. The overnight move is the market's first answer, and it is usually already in the opening price. The tradeable question is whether the rest of the index follows the reporting company through the first hour or leaves it behind.
• Watch for stacked weeks. When a heavy reporting week shares its days with a Fed decision or a major release, the risks stack. Trading smaller that week costs little.

Our Bias Bot reads that overnight news before every open. Earnings and guidance are one of its four weighted factors, and its drivers note when an overnight reaction already looks priced in. Our Volatility Scale sees the same night through two of its inputs: the size of the opening gap and how far the market has already travelled before the open, measured against the average range.

This season's dates

The season for the third quarter of 2026, as scheduled at the start of October. Dates marked expected come from listings rather than the companies themselves, and can move.

That last week of October is the one to plan for. If the expected dates hold, several of the index's largest companies report within a day or two of a Fed decision, and the guide to how CPI, jobs reports and Fed days move stocks covers the Fed half of it. None of this is advice about your money.